UK Industrial production data to hint at possible direction in revisions to Q2 GDP - BNZ

FXStreet (Łódź) - The BNZ team of analysts expect UK Industrial Production to rise by 0.5% in June following the 0.7% drop in May.

Key quotes

"Consensus is looking for a 0.7% increase, but with industrial production representing 16% of total GDP, that in itself would not be enough to push GDP higher unless we see some upward revisions to back data."

"We look for a 0.4% rise in manufacturing production, which again is a little below consensus."

"Ahead of that data we get the PMI surveys for July construction and service sector output. Both should indicate solid growth during the month, but we suspect that the rate of growth is slowing in the third quarter."

"The fact that August is an Inflation Report month generally means that MPC members have more latitude than usual to change their mind. Given the unanimous decision in July to keep the Bank Rate at 0.5% and asset purchases at £375 billion, we are not looking for any change in August."

"That said, the Inflation Report and Minutes could signal that a rate rise is coming later this year depending on the strength of economic data."