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4 Aug 2014
NZ jobs: Difficult to maintain recent storming pace - BNZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Doug Steel, Economist at BNZ, shares his view on the upcoming NZ jobs report later on the week, noting that it might be difficult for employment to maintain its recent storming quarterly employment pace.
Key Quotes
"Attention turns to the labour market this week. We expect Wednesday’s trio of labour market reports to reflect general economic progress over recent times..."
"The economic upswing over the last few years is one such force generating considerable demand for labour. For example, survey after survey has shown firms’ employment intentions at elevated levels."
"That said, it might be difficult for Household Labour Force Survey employment to maintain its recent storming quarterly employment pace."
"We’re looking for a solid employment increase of 0.7% for Q2. Still, such a result would take annual employment growth to 4.0%; an annual pace of employment expansion not seen for 10 years."
"Be that as it may, a more instructive result will arguably be the unemployment rate as a measure of the balance of labour demand and supply. We estimate the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in Q2, from 6.0% in Q1. But we wouldn’t be floored to see more of a drop, given a range of indicators showing a rapidly tightening labour market. "
Key Quotes
"Attention turns to the labour market this week. We expect Wednesday’s trio of labour market reports to reflect general economic progress over recent times..."
"The economic upswing over the last few years is one such force generating considerable demand for labour. For example, survey after survey has shown firms’ employment intentions at elevated levels."
"That said, it might be difficult for Household Labour Force Survey employment to maintain its recent storming quarterly employment pace."
"We’re looking for a solid employment increase of 0.7% for Q2. Still, such a result would take annual employment growth to 4.0%; an annual pace of employment expansion not seen for 10 years."
"Be that as it may, a more instructive result will arguably be the unemployment rate as a measure of the balance of labour demand and supply. We estimate the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in Q2, from 6.0% in Q1. But we wouldn’t be floored to see more of a drop, given a range of indicators showing a rapidly tightening labour market. "