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      2 May 2013

      Forex Flash: GBP/USD failure at 1.5600/03 favored - Commerzbank

      FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The GBP/USD has rallied to the top of its short term channel, the approximate location of the 50% retracement at 1.5600/03, and is holding there: “We favor failure here. However the intraday charts are giving conflicting signals and above 1.5603 we would allow for one more push higher to 1.5761/82 (200 day ma and 61.8% retracement, where we would expect to see failure)”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to the loss of the 1.5412 mid April peak as needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the 1.5274 uptrend. “Failure here is needed to confirm the idea that the market has resumed its down move”, she added, suggesting losses to 1.5028 (the 20th March low) in a break below.
      May 2, 2013

      Forex: EUR/JPY hovering over 128.00 ahead of ECB

      The cross is trading on the back foot on Thursday as the renewed strength of the Japanese yen continues to drag the pair to lower levels, ahead of the ECB interest rate decision due later...
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      May 2, 2013

      Forex Flash: ECB expected to cut rate by 25bp today and to suggest more in June – TD Securities

      Market focus for today is the ECB interest rate decision, and while TD Securities analysts expect a 25bps refi rate cut, and this seems to have been well telegraphed by Draghi suggesting it was data dependent at last month’s press conference, it is still not a slam dunk decision: “We remain very uncomfortable, given when all is said and done, it will likely mean little for the economy so the ECB is actively looking for other options, which makes handicapping market reactions difficult”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, adding that if the rate cut can improve sentiment, or via reduced LTRO funding costs create incentives to buy peripheral debt, “then we could see a peripheral rally, but core rates risk moving higher if there is no suggestion of a deposit rate cut or more action to come”.
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