When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US monthly retail sales overview

Tuesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to modest growth of 0.2% for February, slightly lower than the previous month's reading of 0.3%. Sales excluding automobiles (core retail sales) are also seen rising by 0.2% during the reported month as against 0.3% growth recorded in January. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to rise by 0.4% as compared to the previous month's flat reading.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Given that the recent price action has been exclusively driven by developments surrounding the coronavirus saga, the data is more likely to pass unnoticed and might do little to provide any meaningful impetus. As Joseph Trevisani, FXStreet's own Senior Analyst explains: “The February retail sales figures are, to a much greater degree than normal, retrograde and not useful in assessing the current economic direction. Unless of course, they show an unanticipated drop, in which case they will be seen as a harbinger of much worse declines to come.”

Ahead of the important release, the pair tumbled to 2-1/2 week lows and was last seen flirting with the key 1.10 psychological mark. A surprisingly stronger reading – though seems unlikely – should provide some additional boost to the already stronger US dollar and continued exerting pressure on the major. The pair then might accelerate the slide back towards challenging the 1.0900 round-figure mark.

Conversely, a weaker reading might provide some immediate respite for bulls and assist the pair to stage a modest recovery. However, the bounce might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near 100-day SMA support breakpoint, now turned resistance around the 1.1055-60 region.

Key Notes

US Retail Sales February Preview: Old news or a forecast?

EUR/USD Forecast: Dead cat bounce over? Darkening coronavirus clouds imply fresh falls

EUR/USD tumbles further to the 1.1030 region on USD-buying

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).