EUR/USD: Short-term top in place? – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe EUR/USD charted an interim top in the vicinity of the 1.1500 mark.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “While our view for ‘further EUR weakness’ is correct, the sudden plunge to a low of 1.1054 and the subsequent snap back higher was unexpected. EUR could weaken further in the days ahead but for now, oversold conditions suggest it could continue to trade in a volatile manner but overall holding within yesterday’s super wide range of 279 pips (between 1.1054 and 1.1333).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated on Wednesday (11 Mar, spot 1.1300) that ‘upward momentum has been dented’ and added, ‘a break of 1.1230 would indicate that the rally that started in February has run its course’. EUR cracked 1.1230 yesterday (12 Mar), plummeted to 1.1054 before snapping back up. The wild swings resulted in a huge 1-day range of 279 pips, the largest since June 2018. Overall, Monday’s top of 1.1496 is viewed a short-term top and from here, EUR could trade in a choppy manner and within a broad 1.0980/1.1380.”