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15 Apr 2013
Forex: USD/JPY still below 98.00 after US housing
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The resumption of the profit taking momentum seen in the market after Thursday’s high at 99.94 sent the USD/JPY further down, to 97.56 low. Despite a first bounce to 98.28, the pair has been trading below the 98.00 during the most recent hours and is failing its attempts to break above.
The housing market index by NAHB eased from 44 to 42 in April, disappointing market analysts that were expecting a rise to 45.
The NY empire state manufacturing index also disappointed, down from 9.74 to 3.05 in April, below 7.00 consensus. Having come in at $25.7B in January, the February release of US net tic flows disappointed investors at $-17.8B. Market consensus was pointing to $41.3B. Total Net TIC flows eased from $116.8B (revised from $110.9B) to $53.6B.
The market priced in the disappointing release of China GDP data, easing from 7.9% to 7.7% (consensus of 8.0%) in Q1 (YoY), while QoQ data came in at 1.6% (consensus of 1.9%). Also, Chinese urban investment (down from 21.2% to 20.9% vs 21.3% consensus) and industrial production (down from 9.9% to 8.9% vs 10% consensus) in March didn’t help the mood, but China retail sales rose from 12.3% to 12.6%, against expectations of 12.5%.
Japan February industrial production was down from -5.8% to -10.5% and capacity utilization fell from 1.7% to 0.7%. However, the monthly change in industrial production came in higher than expected, at 0.6% instead of -0.1%.
“We target 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). This is expected to hold the initial test”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. “We have conflicting signals on the intraday chart, currently we see support at 96.70 (March high) and failure here will suggest a retest of trend and cloud support at 93.79/64”, she continued.
The housing market index by NAHB eased from 44 to 42 in April, disappointing market analysts that were expecting a rise to 45.
The NY empire state manufacturing index also disappointed, down from 9.74 to 3.05 in April, below 7.00 consensus. Having come in at $25.7B in January, the February release of US net tic flows disappointed investors at $-17.8B. Market consensus was pointing to $41.3B. Total Net TIC flows eased from $116.8B (revised from $110.9B) to $53.6B.
The market priced in the disappointing release of China GDP data, easing from 7.9% to 7.7% (consensus of 8.0%) in Q1 (YoY), while QoQ data came in at 1.6% (consensus of 1.9%). Also, Chinese urban investment (down from 21.2% to 20.9% vs 21.3% consensus) and industrial production (down from 9.9% to 8.9% vs 10% consensus) in March didn’t help the mood, but China retail sales rose from 12.3% to 12.6%, against expectations of 12.5%.
Japan February industrial production was down from -5.8% to -10.5% and capacity utilization fell from 1.7% to 0.7%. However, the monthly change in industrial production came in higher than expected, at 0.6% instead of -0.1%.
“We target 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). This is expected to hold the initial test”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. “We have conflicting signals on the intraday chart, currently we see support at 96.70 (March high) and failure here will suggest a retest of trend and cloud support at 93.79/64”, she continued.