USD/INR: Rupee to underperform in 2019 – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists, the Indian National Rupee (INR) is likely to remain on the back foot against the US dollar this year, in light of increased uncertainty around the general election in May.

Key Findings:

“The latest poll of over 55 foreign exchange strategists taken Jan 28-Feb 5 showed the currency will strengthen only slightly to 71.0 per dollar in a year from around 71.8, where it was trading on Tuesday.

The latest poll also shows less than 10 percent of the total contributors with a year-ahead view now expect the rupee to breach its all-time low of 74.485 per dollar hit on Oct. 11.

That compares with nearly one-fifth in the previous survey, about a third in December, and down significantly from nearly 50 percent in a November poll.

A separate Reuters poll showed bets against the rupee rose to their highest since early December, dampened by oil’s resurgence and election risks.” 

USD/INR Technical Levels