Fed's Kashkari: There is little reason to raise rates further
In a recently published blog post, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued that there was little reason to raise rates further. Below are some key takeaways from the article.
We know the bond market is telling us that inflation expectations appear well-anchored, the economy is not showing signs of overheating and rates are already close to neutral.
This suggests that there is little reason to raise rates much further, invert the yield curve, put the brakes on the economy and risk that it does, in fact, trigger a recession.
If inflation expectations or real growth prospects pick up, the Fed can always raise rates then.
If the Fed continues raising rates, we risk not only inverting the yield curve, but also moving to a contractionary policy stance and putting the brakes on the economy, which the markets are indicating is at this point unnecessary.