US Consumer Confidence: Lower but still very strong - ING

James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, notes that despite the decline in US consumer confidence in April, numbers are still very strong by historical standards. 

Key Quotes: 

“The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan sentiment index for April has underperformed expectations, coming in at 97.8 versus the consensus forecast of 100.4 and March’s reading of 101.4.”

“The weakness was probably due to softer equity markets and rising gasoline prices, but we have to remember the report remains very strong by historical standards.”

“On the one hand, equity markets have stabilised, but remain vulnerable to bad news on trade talks and geopolitics. Gasoline prices have spiked back again and mortgage rates have been pushed up by the move in government bond yields. On the other, a tight jobs market suggests upside potential for wages, while the economy continues to create jobs in significant numbers and tax cuts are putting more money in households' pockets.”

“We suspect the cash flow story will win out for now, implying a positive outlook for consumer spending."