UK week ahead: CPI and retail sales - Danske Bank

Next week, economic reports from the United Kingdom include the inflation and retail sales. Analysts from Danske Bank, expect the CPI figures for October to show a small uptick, driven mainly by lingering effects of the weak GBP.

Key Quotes: 

“In the UK, CPI figures for October are due to be released on Tuesday. Inflation remains at close to 3% on an annual basis, still driven mainly by the weak GBP. However, the positive contribution from the GBP is starting to fade gradually, although in our view it will take some time before it affects inflation significantly. We estimate CPI rose 0.3% m/m (3.2% y/y versus 3.0% in September). 

“On Thursday, we get retail sales excluding fuels for October. Retail sales growth has slowed due to negative real wage growth and is one of the reasons GDP growth has slowed this year. That said, remember UK retail sales is not the best indicator of actual consumption growth.”