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25 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Cyprus News Drives Positioning Changes - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategists note that most of the overall themes in the positioning space have been reversed for the week.
They note that there was AUD and JPY buying, along with the selling of MXN, however the theme that did continue was speculative EUR selling after the weekend news about Cyprus. They ad that their real time indicator shows that positioning did not change dramatically since Tuesday despite significant news about Cyprus, but they are estimating that there was a small amount of EUR and GBP buying. They see that net positioning remained largely long USD against developed markets.
Looking at EUR positioning, they note that it remains net short and the small amount of buying last week was more than reversed in the current week. They feel that this is hardly surprising given the Eurozone issues that were at the forefront of market participants minds this week after the Cyprus bailout and depositor taxes kept the market nervous. Looking to JPY they note that net short actually decreased ahead of the Kuroda speech, likely also a function of the eurozone sentiment, though price action in that period suggests that most investors looked at the USDJPY dip as one to buy. Finally they note that AUD longs increased for the second consecutive week, after 6 weeks of selling, and price action vindicated this change as the AUD and NZD remained stubborn to any risk-off sentiment in overall markets.
They note that there was AUD and JPY buying, along with the selling of MXN, however the theme that did continue was speculative EUR selling after the weekend news about Cyprus. They ad that their real time indicator shows that positioning did not change dramatically since Tuesday despite significant news about Cyprus, but they are estimating that there was a small amount of EUR and GBP buying. They see that net positioning remained largely long USD against developed markets.
Looking at EUR positioning, they note that it remains net short and the small amount of buying last week was more than reversed in the current week. They feel that this is hardly surprising given the Eurozone issues that were at the forefront of market participants minds this week after the Cyprus bailout and depositor taxes kept the market nervous. Looking to JPY they note that net short actually decreased ahead of the Kuroda speech, likely also a function of the eurozone sentiment, though price action in that period suggests that most investors looked at the USDJPY dip as one to buy. Finally they note that AUD longs increased for the second consecutive week, after 6 weeks of selling, and price action vindicated this change as the AUD and NZD remained stubborn to any risk-off sentiment in overall markets.