When are German IFO surveys and how they could affect EUR/USD?

German IFO Business Climate Overview

The German Ifo surveys for September are lined up for release later today at 8GMT. The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to come in a tad better at 116.0 in Sept versus 115.9 seen last month. The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen slightly higher at 124.8 this month, while the Ifo Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is expected remain unchanged at 107.9 this month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Surveys are expected to better readings across all indicators, which could offer fresh support to the EUR/USD pair and help its to resume its gap-filling mode above 1.19 handle.

Haresh Menghani, Analysts at FXStreet noted: “From a technical perspective, the pair has been finding some buying interest at a short-term ascending trend-channel support, currently near the 1.1900-1.1895 region. A convincing break below the mentioned support is likely to accelerate the fall towards the lower end of the recent trading range, near the 1.1830-25 region.”

“On the flip side, any subsequent recovery beyond mid-1.1900s might continue to confront some fresh supply near the key 1.20 psychological mark. Even if the pair manages to clear this immediate hurdle, further up-move is likely to be capped at the trading range resistance near the 1.2050-60 region,” Haresh added.

Key notes

German IFO and Brexit negotiations amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

“In Germany, the Ifo business confidence for September is expected to show a further increase and add to the upbeat picture of the euro area witnessed in the PMI data last week.”

About German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).