The following USD/SEK set-up, outlined from an hourly perspective, consists of a weakening technical structure accompanied by very low volatility.

Recent trading has been happening below the 50 exponential moving average, a bearish condition which, should it persist, would make more SAR indicator dots appear above the prices. Low volatility will eventually switch to higher. However, with reversal signals currently absent in the SAR for more than 16 consecutive hours, risks remain statistically higher for the selling to dry up and for a counter move to ensue in USD/SEK.

Since this set-up is usually associated with the formation of gently downward sloping channels, the first resistance to challenge on the upside is the potential channel top.