AUD/USD to target 0.7400, crosses offer more downside potential - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that the unwinding of crowded positioning should see AUD continue to trade weakly in the near term, with AUD/USD likely to drift down and test the bottom of the 0.7491-0.7750 range that it has occupied since early February.

Key Quotes:

"A break would open the door to a move down in AUD/USD towards the low of 0.7400, but given the relative improvement in the flow picture, with Australia now running a rare basic balance surplus and with the real Australia-US 10-year spread also range trading, a further move lower in AUD/USD would take a further sustained appreciation in USD, which we do not expect. 

Nevertheless, we do see potential for more pronounced AUD weakness on some of the crosses, given shifts in the relative fundamentals and positioning. We are currently short AUD/CAD. Added to that, with AUD/JPY now having pushed below some key support levels and given the asymmetry in the risk backdrop, a further decline in global long-end yields and flow through to a narrowing in the real Australia-Japan 10-year spread (given the greater potential move in Australian yields compared with Japanese yields), we think AUD/JPY could be dragged back down to the 200-day moving average (81.87), and then towards 80.00 if risk sentiment were to deteriorate more pronouncedly."