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Australian Jan employment headline upbeat, full-time jobs suffer sharp fall

Australia employment change s.a. came in at +13.5k in January, above forecasts of +10k and prior of 13.5k, with the unemployment rate s.a. at 5.7% vs forecasts of 5.8% and 5.8% last. Fulltime employment stood at -44.8k vs previous 9.3k, while part-time employment 58.3k from previous 4.2k. Participation rate was 64.6% vs expected 64.7% and prior of 64.7%.

KEY POINTS - JANUARY

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

  • Employment increased 11,700 to 11,984,300.
  • Unemployment increased 2,800 to 726,100.
  • Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 64.6%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.6 million hours to 1,676.0 million hours.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

  • Employment increased 13,500 to 11,998,200. Full-time employment decreased 44,800 to 8,125,700 and part-time employment increased 58,300 to 3,872,500.
  • Unemployment decreased 19,300 to 720,200. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 16,000 to 511,000 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 3,300 to 209,200.
  • Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.7%.
  • Participation rate decreased 0.1 pts to 64.6%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 10.2 million hours to 1,682.7 million hours.

Australia RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction: 557M (January) vs previous 1799M

Australia RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction: 557M (January) vs previous 1799M
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USD/CNY fix model: Projection at 6.8595 - Nomura

Nomura's model projects the fix to be 37 pips lower than the previous fix (6.8595 from 6.8632) and 77 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/C
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