Canada: Expect a 20K decline in employment in November – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, is forecasting a 20K decline in Canada’s employment in November following 139.3K of gains over the past three months that looks overstated.

Key Quotes

“That gain has been more skewed to part-time employment as full-time is up 52K over the past three months and still down 12K so far in 2016. We see a 15K decline in goods employment in the month, with much of this expected in construction (+23.8K in October), while services should only be down ~5K. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 7.0% for the fourth consecutive month, with a 15K decline in the labour force expected after ~158K in gains over the past three months.”