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18 Dec 2013
Flash: FOMC to be slightly more hawkish in 2014 - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, notes that based on the FOMC voting rotation - to occur first meeting of the year, 28-29 Jan -, the 2014 rotation is slightly more hawkish given the replacement of two doves and one hawk with two hawks and one dove.
Key Quotes
"As always, the 7 members of the Board of Governors plus the NY Fed president remain as voters, with 4 regional Fed presidents rotating. Fed officials - especially those not currently voting! - like to play down the significance of who is in the voting rotation but markets like the voter/non-voter labels. Yellen, Dudley and the new Vice Chair should be keys to policy over the year ahead but it is also worth noting the rotation."
"All up then, the 2014 rotation is slightly more hawkish given the replacement of two doves and one hawk with two hawks and one dove. As usual, the shared view of the Board of Governors will be key to the progression of policy over the year and the empty seats add some uncertainty. It may also be that the hawkish minority has a little more influence in a year of likely policy pivot than in the past few years."
WHO’S IN? HAWKS: Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed president. CENTRIST: Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto. DOVE: Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota. WHO’S OUT? HAWK: Kansas City Fed president Esther George. CENTRIST: St. Louis Fed president James Bullard. DOVES: Chicago Fed president Charles Evans and Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren.
Key Quotes
"As always, the 7 members of the Board of Governors plus the NY Fed president remain as voters, with 4 regional Fed presidents rotating. Fed officials - especially those not currently voting! - like to play down the significance of who is in the voting rotation but markets like the voter/non-voter labels. Yellen, Dudley and the new Vice Chair should be keys to policy over the year ahead but it is also worth noting the rotation."
"All up then, the 2014 rotation is slightly more hawkish given the replacement of two doves and one hawk with two hawks and one dove. As usual, the shared view of the Board of Governors will be key to the progression of policy over the year and the empty seats add some uncertainty. It may also be that the hawkish minority has a little more influence in a year of likely policy pivot than in the past few years."
WHO’S IN? HAWKS: Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed president. CENTRIST: Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto. DOVE: Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota. WHO’S OUT? HAWK: Kansas City Fed president Esther George. CENTRIST: St. Louis Fed president James Bullard. DOVES: Chicago Fed president Charles Evans and Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren.