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8 Mar 2013
Fundamental Afternoon Wrap: NFPs roar
A understandably quiet afternoon for institutional research has seen an obvious focus on NFPs which shattered expectations and some reflection on Draghi´s performance yesterday and the implications looking forward.
USD
BNP Paribas economist Alexandra Estiot comments on today's impressive NFP numbers commenting the trend is good and supportive for households’ purchasing power and confidence. However, they are not expecting the Fed to react yet. Marc Chandler of BBH notes that the US jobs data was consistent with the recent string of data, clearly showing a surprising resilience to the anticipation of tightening of fiscal policy. Rob Carnell of ING notes that following today´s NFPs he feels that the near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally, most notably against JPY and GBP:
EUR
Reflecting on yesterdays ECB meet, the European economics team at BAML comment that the policy statement was as usual bland but that he highlighted the point that the ECBs policy was extremely accommodative and how committed the ECB is to maintaining its stance. The interesting part for them was the near near commitment to monetary policy by Draghi, by ensuring that it would keep liquidity available at low rates for as long as necessary and would monitor short term “eonia, both spots and forwards.” Brown Brothers Harriman analysts comment on the resilience of the Italian asset markets, despite the lack of progress towards political clarity.
USD
BNP Paribas economist Alexandra Estiot comments on today's impressive NFP numbers commenting the trend is good and supportive for households’ purchasing power and confidence. However, they are not expecting the Fed to react yet. Marc Chandler of BBH notes that the US jobs data was consistent with the recent string of data, clearly showing a surprising resilience to the anticipation of tightening of fiscal policy. Rob Carnell of ING notes that following today´s NFPs he feels that the near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally, most notably against JPY and GBP:
EUR
Reflecting on yesterdays ECB meet, the European economics team at BAML comment that the policy statement was as usual bland but that he highlighted the point that the ECBs policy was extremely accommodative and how committed the ECB is to maintaining its stance. The interesting part for them was the near near commitment to monetary policy by Draghi, by ensuring that it would keep liquidity available at low rates for as long as necessary and would monitor short term “eonia, both spots and forwards.” Brown Brothers Harriman analysts comment on the resilience of the Italian asset markets, despite the lack of progress towards political clarity.