Brexit: If the UK votes to leave the EU - BNZ

Research Team at BNZ, suggests that the European Referendum Act 2015 does not include provisions to implement the result of the referendum.

Key Quotes

“Legally, the Government is not bound to follow the outcome. However, it would be very unlikely for the Government to ignore the outcome of the referendum.

The mechanics and timetable of the withdrawal process:

• A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention;
• An agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty;
• EU membership will cease two years after the withdrawal notification date or before if a withdrawal agreement is reached before hand (an extension could be negotiated by the two parties).

Although the PM has suggested that such a notice would be given within days of a referendum vote to leave, in practice this seems unlikely; a few weeks/months working out a plan of action seems more probable.

Political twist

• Chances are that David Cameron will have to resign if Brexiters win.
• If so, Britain’s notice of EU membership withdrawal could be delayed until after a new Prime Minister is announced with the process potentially dragging on all the way into autumn (spring time in New Zealand). That said, bias would be for the Brexit process to be completed ahead of the next general election (7 May 2020) meaning that a likely deadline for giving notice of withdrawal would be 31 Dec 2016 with exit completed by the end of 2018.”