FOMC Minutes: Key economic release of the week - TDS

Millan Mulraine, Deputy Head US Macro Strategy at TDS, suggests that the March FOMC statement and accompanying SEP were unambiguously dovish, reflecting a greater concern among Fed officials about the risks posed to the US economic outlook from global developments and the weakening in inflation expectations.

Key Quotes

“This was reinforced in Yellen’s post-FOMC press conference and recent keynote remarks. Nevertheless, TD expects the tone of the minutes of the meeting to reflect a slightly more mixed assessment, underscoring the diversity of views among Fed officials.

Of particular interest will be gauging the discussions surrounding the lowering in the projection path for the fed funds rate and the downshift in the estimate of the terminal policy rate, which we expect to show a vocal minority arguing for a less gradual tightening path. Similarly, the absence of a risk assessment was also noteworthy, and it suggests the absence of a consensus towards the extent of the risks to the outlook – this is also likely to be underscored in the minutes.”