Back
23 Feb 2016
JPY: Renewed yearly decline in all-Japan core CPI likely – Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the decline in the Tokyo core core CPI for January came as a surprise and they see the data overall as indicating that upward pressure on prices from yen depreciation has been fading.
Key Quotes
“Forecasts for CPI data to be released this month at 8:30am on Friday, 26 February: We expect the all-Japan core CPI for January and the Tokyo core CPI for February both to show m-m declines. In the former case, this would be the first decline in three months.
Main price changes by item in 2015: We have compiled a list of the main price changes by item in 2015. The top spots among items that rose were mainly taken by food items, while top spots among items that fell were mainly taken by energy-related items and consumer electronics/home appliances.
Our view of the JGBi market: JGBis have declined in price to the point where they have effectively discounted deflation. The BEI continues to decline, largely as a result of the fall in crude oil prices. Speculation that the next increase in the consumption tax may be postponed has probably also been a factor, but supply-demand has probably played a major part. In view of inflation expectations, we can probably say that JGBis with guaranteed principal have dropped to an attractive level for those prepared to hold them to maturity.”
Key Quotes
“Forecasts for CPI data to be released this month at 8:30am on Friday, 26 February: We expect the all-Japan core CPI for January and the Tokyo core CPI for February both to show m-m declines. In the former case, this would be the first decline in three months.
Main price changes by item in 2015: We have compiled a list of the main price changes by item in 2015. The top spots among items that rose were mainly taken by food items, while top spots among items that fell were mainly taken by energy-related items and consumer electronics/home appliances.
Our view of the JGBi market: JGBis have declined in price to the point where they have effectively discounted deflation. The BEI continues to decline, largely as a result of the fall in crude oil prices. Speculation that the next increase in the consumption tax may be postponed has probably also been a factor, but supply-demand has probably played a major part. In view of inflation expectations, we can probably say that JGBis with guaranteed principal have dropped to an attractive level for those prepared to hold them to maturity.”