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CoT: USD longs shrink further, AUD turns net long - Nomura

As Nomura reports, according to the IMM data for the week ended February 16, non-commercial accounts sold USD to the tune of -$3.9bn.

Key Quotes

"According to the IMM data for the week ended February 16, non-commercial accounts sold USD to the tune of -$3.9bn, bringing positioning in USD down to $13.9bn; however, our real-time estimator suggests net longs increased by $3.0bn since then, bringing estimated net longs to a low of $16.9bn."

"EUR shorts were cut by $2.2bn on the week, with net shorts at -$6.7bn as of Tuesday;our real-time estimator suggests that net shorts increased back by a further -$1.9bn since then, bringing net shorts back to -$8.6bn."

"JPY longs increased further by $0.6bn for the week ended February 16, bringing net longs to $5.3bn. However, our real-time estimator suggests that since then, noncommercial accounts sold JPY the tune of -$0.4bn, bringing net longs back to $4.9bn."

"AUD positioning turned net long as of the week ended February 16. Non-commercial accounts bought AUD to the tune of $0.6bn, bringing net longs to $0.2bn. This is the first time AUD was net long since May 2015."

AUD/USD tetsing 100 dma, bulish above 0.7065

AUD/USD is resting up on the convergence of the 100 and 50 sma on the hourly sticks within a 25 pip range ahead of a week that could get volatile for the major commodity currency.
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USD/JPY: a bullish start in Tokyo

USD/JPY is trying to make traction on the downside since the downtrend of the pressures the 200 dma at 121.20 this month. The major lost 10 big figures on risk off sentiment and the glut in oil prices while at the same time, the Fed is adding fuel to that fire as markets start to out price an H1 Fed hike in 2016.
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