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8 Feb 2016
G10 week ahead; slightly lighter in the US
Analysts at Nomura noted and explained the forthcoming data for the week ahead.
Key Quotes:
"Next Week’s Headline Events (all times are GMT)
1. US: Import prices (Friday 13:30), Retail Sales (Friday 13:30)
2. Japan: BOJ Summary of Opinions at last MP meeting (Sunday 23:50)
3. Europe: UK external trade (Tuesday 09:30), Euro flash Q4 GDP (Friday 10:00)
4. Central banks: Riksbank (Thursday 08:30)
Next week will be relatively lighter on the data front for the U.S., with the focus being on consumer data (retail sales, sentiment, and inflation expectations).
On import prices, flat to declining nonpetroleum import prices on a monthly basis since April 2014 and sharply falling crude oil in January should put further downward pressure on import prices. Consensus forecasts a 1.5% decline in import prices in January, and we expect weakness here to continue to weigh on domestic retail prices of consumer goods in the near term. On retail sales, favorable fundamentals (strong labor market, low energy prices, elevated savings rate) should enable consumers to continue to support economic growth while the industrial sector experiences challenges. We forecast a gradual rebound in core retail sales (0.2% rise in January). Lastly, the 5- to 10-year-ahead inflation expectations inched higher to 2.7% from 2.6% in January, which could give some FOMC members more confidence that inflation expectations remained well anchored, albeit at the low end of the recent range.
In terms of central bank decisions, we have the Riksbank next week. SEK has been trading more strongly than the Bank expected, and the latest inflation data have been disappointing. Although the next meeting will again be a close call (timing might be tricky, as an ECB easing is highly expected at the next meeting in March), the Bank is likely to need to ease sooner rather than later to prevent SEK appreciation, and we attach a 60% probability of easing next week, which should strengthen EUR/SEK toward 9.50.
In addition, the BOJ is scheduled to release its “Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 28 and 29, 2016” on Sunday evening (23:50pm GMT). This is a shorter version of the meeting minutes and will be important for understanding the pros and cons of the introduction of negative rates, and to obtain any indication of how far negatives rates can go (a very specific comment is unlikely though).
On euro area, GDP, we expect the flash reading to increase to 0.3% q-o-q in Q4, an unchanged pace from Q3 but slightly lower than the 0.4% in Q2. This forecast of 0.3% q-o-q for Q4 GDP would be slightly weaker than the December Euro system staff projections and would further support our expectations of additional easing by the ECB in March.
In the UK, we forecast for the total external trade deficit to reach £3.3bn, on the back of an increase in the fuels deficit (this item is prone to volatile changes that swiftly reverse). With warm weather depressing flows on the National Grid and declining oil and gas extraction being reported to the Joint Oil Data Initiative, we expect industrial production to decline by 0.2% m-o-m, which should match the decline in IP that the ONS assumed in its first estimate of Q4 GDP growth."
Key Quotes:
"Next Week’s Headline Events (all times are GMT)
1. US: Import prices (Friday 13:30), Retail Sales (Friday 13:30)
2. Japan: BOJ Summary of Opinions at last MP meeting (Sunday 23:50)
3. Europe: UK external trade (Tuesday 09:30), Euro flash Q4 GDP (Friday 10:00)
4. Central banks: Riksbank (Thursday 08:30)
Next week will be relatively lighter on the data front for the U.S., with the focus being on consumer data (retail sales, sentiment, and inflation expectations).
On import prices, flat to declining nonpetroleum import prices on a monthly basis since April 2014 and sharply falling crude oil in January should put further downward pressure on import prices. Consensus forecasts a 1.5% decline in import prices in January, and we expect weakness here to continue to weigh on domestic retail prices of consumer goods in the near term. On retail sales, favorable fundamentals (strong labor market, low energy prices, elevated savings rate) should enable consumers to continue to support economic growth while the industrial sector experiences challenges. We forecast a gradual rebound in core retail sales (0.2% rise in January). Lastly, the 5- to 10-year-ahead inflation expectations inched higher to 2.7% from 2.6% in January, which could give some FOMC members more confidence that inflation expectations remained well anchored, albeit at the low end of the recent range.
In terms of central bank decisions, we have the Riksbank next week. SEK has been trading more strongly than the Bank expected, and the latest inflation data have been disappointing. Although the next meeting will again be a close call (timing might be tricky, as an ECB easing is highly expected at the next meeting in March), the Bank is likely to need to ease sooner rather than later to prevent SEK appreciation, and we attach a 60% probability of easing next week, which should strengthen EUR/SEK toward 9.50.
In addition, the BOJ is scheduled to release its “Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 28 and 29, 2016” on Sunday evening (23:50pm GMT). This is a shorter version of the meeting minutes and will be important for understanding the pros and cons of the introduction of negative rates, and to obtain any indication of how far negatives rates can go (a very specific comment is unlikely though).
On euro area, GDP, we expect the flash reading to increase to 0.3% q-o-q in Q4, an unchanged pace from Q3 but slightly lower than the 0.4% in Q2. This forecast of 0.3% q-o-q for Q4 GDP would be slightly weaker than the December Euro system staff projections and would further support our expectations of additional easing by the ECB in March.
In the UK, we forecast for the total external trade deficit to reach £3.3bn, on the back of an increase in the fuels deficit (this item is prone to volatile changes that swiftly reverse). With warm weather depressing flows on the National Grid and declining oil and gas extraction being reported to the Joint Oil Data Initiative, we expect industrial production to decline by 0.2% m-o-m, which should match the decline in IP that the ONS assumed in its first estimate of Q4 GDP growth."