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4 Mar 2013
Forex: EUR/USD engaged in 1.30 battle
In a weekend where risk headlines were absent, Italy's center-left politician Mr. Bersani - his party obtained the most seats in the lower house - has brought a bit of juicy news by continuing to speculate on forming a grand coalition government with Mr. Berlusconi or Mr. Grillo, a scenario that seems, in the eyes of the market, hard to imagine.
The EUR/USD opening quote, after breaking through the 1.30 barrier on Friday, is almost unchanged around the big round number. Price action indicates that sellers are still well in control, with an ongoing bearish pattern - developed over the past few weeks - still paying off for those sellers trying to capitalize on the dominant trend at the right swing points.
According to Sean Lee, founder at FXWW: "The break back below 1.3000 is a bearish sign for EUR/USD and selling rallies looks like the most logical play." The Sydney-based analyst, however, notes that "this move seems to be based more on USD strength rather than EUR weakness, with the single currency making gains against all the other majors" he says.
For those eager sellers, Sean warns that sovereign buying forces have recently emerged around 1.3000. Overall, Sean favours a test of strong support levels near 1.2875.
Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, also has $1.2880 as the main target for sellers, a significant level as it aligns with "the 50% retracement of the gains scored after ECB's Draghi promised to do whatever it took" Marc notes.
On the upside, sequence of near-by resistances will pose a tough challenge for counter-trend traders, with layers of selling interest likely found at 1.3035/40 - highest from last NY close - ahead of 1.3050/55 - Feb 28 swing low , with only break above the latter accepting 1.31 target speculations as valid.
The EUR/USD opening quote, after breaking through the 1.30 barrier on Friday, is almost unchanged around the big round number. Price action indicates that sellers are still well in control, with an ongoing bearish pattern - developed over the past few weeks - still paying off for those sellers trying to capitalize on the dominant trend at the right swing points.
According to Sean Lee, founder at FXWW: "The break back below 1.3000 is a bearish sign for EUR/USD and selling rallies looks like the most logical play." The Sydney-based analyst, however, notes that "this move seems to be based more on USD strength rather than EUR weakness, with the single currency making gains against all the other majors" he says.
For those eager sellers, Sean warns that sovereign buying forces have recently emerged around 1.3000. Overall, Sean favours a test of strong support levels near 1.2875.
Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, also has $1.2880 as the main target for sellers, a significant level as it aligns with "the 50% retracement of the gains scored after ECB's Draghi promised to do whatever it took" Marc notes.
On the upside, sequence of near-by resistances will pose a tough challenge for counter-trend traders, with layers of selling interest likely found at 1.3035/40 - highest from last NY close - ahead of 1.3050/55 - Feb 28 swing low , with only break above the latter accepting 1.31 target speculations as valid.