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20 Sep 2013
Fitch cuts Croatia to Junk and Malta to A ratings
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Fitch Ratings has downgraded Croatia sovereign debt to BB+ from BBB- according to a press release published by the agency. Fitch also cut Malta to 'A' from 'A+'. Both with stable outlook.
According to Fitch, "Croatia's fiscal outlook has deteriorated since Fitch's previous sovereign rating review in November 2012. The agency has revised up its forecast for this year's general government deficit to 4.7% in 2013 from 3.9%, while general government debt/GDP is now expected to peak at 66% of GDP in 2016, up from our previous forecast of 62%."
Croatian real GDP growth has significantly underperformed 'BBB' and 'BB' medians: "The economy has been mired in recession since 2009, contracting by a cumulative 11%, and unemployment far exceeds rating peers. Q213 national accounts suggest that the rate of contraction is declining, but Fitch now expects the economy to contract by a further 0.9% in 2013, in contrast to our previous expectation of growth of 0.3%."
On the Malta decision, "there has been significant fiscal slippage," says Fitch. "Malta's general government deficit was 3.3% of GDP in 2012, well above both the government's target (2.2%) and Fitch's September 2012 forecast (2.6% of GDP). This slippage has carried over to 2013, when Fitch forecasts a deficit of 3.6% of GDP, compared with 2.7% in the original 2013 budget."
"Public debt dynamics are worsening," continues Fitch. The agency "now forecasts that general government gross debt (GGGD) will peak at 74% of GDP in 2014-15 (two years later than we previously expected) and decline only marginally in the medium term, remaining above 73pp of GDP by 2020. A debt ratio that is higher for longer reduces the fiscal space to absorb future adverse shocks."
According to Fitch, "Croatia's fiscal outlook has deteriorated since Fitch's previous sovereign rating review in November 2012. The agency has revised up its forecast for this year's general government deficit to 4.7% in 2013 from 3.9%, while general government debt/GDP is now expected to peak at 66% of GDP in 2016, up from our previous forecast of 62%."
Croatian real GDP growth has significantly underperformed 'BBB' and 'BB' medians: "The economy has been mired in recession since 2009, contracting by a cumulative 11%, and unemployment far exceeds rating peers. Q213 national accounts suggest that the rate of contraction is declining, but Fitch now expects the economy to contract by a further 0.9% in 2013, in contrast to our previous expectation of growth of 0.3%."
On the Malta decision, "there has been significant fiscal slippage," says Fitch. "Malta's general government deficit was 3.3% of GDP in 2012, well above both the government's target (2.2%) and Fitch's September 2012 forecast (2.6% of GDP). This slippage has carried over to 2013, when Fitch forecasts a deficit of 3.6% of GDP, compared with 2.7% in the original 2013 budget."
"Public debt dynamics are worsening," continues Fitch. The agency "now forecasts that general government gross debt (GGGD) will peak at 74% of GDP in 2014-15 (two years later than we previously expected) and decline only marginally in the medium term, remaining above 73pp of GDP by 2020. A debt ratio that is higher for longer reduces the fiscal space to absorb future adverse shocks."