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31 Aug 2015
AUD to be helped by more stable China markets - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - AUD should be helped by more stable China markets, notes Westpac, expecting AUD/USD ranges to have probably shifted from 0.7250-0.7450 to 0.7050-0.7250.
Key Quotes
"A volatile August often means a volatile September. Last week's global equity meltdown caused collateral damage to AUD including a 2 cent slide in mere minutes in London, only to rebound."
"With global markets uncertain over US Federal Reserve policy and China's economy, equities pose an ongoing threat to AUD. It is common for the day-to-day correlation between equity benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and the Australian dollar to be positive. A bull market on Wall Street is usually good news for Australia, given our commodity-heavy export basket."
"But China’s stock market is another story. It is famously uncorrelated with the Chinese economy, as seen once more when the Shanghai Composite soared 90% from Oct 2014 to May 2015, even as a wide range of indicators confirmed a gradual slowing in growth and falling profits. The equity market is dominated by retail investors rather than the large institutions such as pension funds that (usually!) help provide some stability to developed markets."
"If Chinese markets are quieter this week as we expect, the focus will turn increasingly to the US economy, with the Aug employment report of course key. Fed officials at the annual Jackson Hole conference were cautious but left the door open to the Sep rate rise Westpac still predicts."
"But markets are only pricing a 25% chance of such a move so a firmer USD should help cap AUD/USD over the week. Ranges have probably shifted from 0.7250-0.7450 to 0.7050-0.7250."
Key Quotes
"A volatile August often means a volatile September. Last week's global equity meltdown caused collateral damage to AUD including a 2 cent slide in mere minutes in London, only to rebound."
"With global markets uncertain over US Federal Reserve policy and China's economy, equities pose an ongoing threat to AUD. It is common for the day-to-day correlation between equity benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and the Australian dollar to be positive. A bull market on Wall Street is usually good news for Australia, given our commodity-heavy export basket."
"But China’s stock market is another story. It is famously uncorrelated with the Chinese economy, as seen once more when the Shanghai Composite soared 90% from Oct 2014 to May 2015, even as a wide range of indicators confirmed a gradual slowing in growth and falling profits. The equity market is dominated by retail investors rather than the large institutions such as pension funds that (usually!) help provide some stability to developed markets."
"If Chinese markets are quieter this week as we expect, the focus will turn increasingly to the US economy, with the Aug employment report of course key. Fed officials at the annual Jackson Hole conference were cautious but left the door open to the Sep rate rise Westpac still predicts."
"But markets are only pricing a 25% chance of such a move so a firmer USD should help cap AUD/USD over the week. Ranges have probably shifted from 0.7250-0.7450 to 0.7050-0.7250."