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31 Aug 2015
US NFP: Make or break for Sept Fed hike - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - Brian Daingerfield, FX Trading Strategist at RBS, expects this week's US Non-Farm Payrolls report to be a “make or break” moment for a September rate hike.
Key Quotes
"While we know the Fed prefers to monitor trends rather than single month readings, one gets the sense that Friday’s employment report is a “make or break” moment for a September rate hike."
"It might be more appropriate to describe the number as a simply a “break” moment – i.e. a very strong payroll number may not be enough to price in heightened risk of a September rate hike but a weak number could push September off the table."
"Our house view for a trend-like gain may sit frustratingly in the center – neither strong enough to “confirm” an imminent rate hike nor weak enough to preclude it. Seasonally, payroll reports for the month of August have tended to surprise on the downside."
Key Quotes
"While we know the Fed prefers to monitor trends rather than single month readings, one gets the sense that Friday’s employment report is a “make or break” moment for a September rate hike."
"It might be more appropriate to describe the number as a simply a “break” moment – i.e. a very strong payroll number may not be enough to price in heightened risk of a September rate hike but a weak number could push September off the table."
"Our house view for a trend-like gain may sit frustratingly in the center – neither strong enough to “confirm” an imminent rate hike nor weak enough to preclude it. Seasonally, payroll reports for the month of August have tended to surprise on the downside."