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2 Jun 2015
Greece: Make or break time? - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that it is crunch time in respect of Greece.
Key Quotes:
"No really. Greece has to make principal repayments of EUR 1.6bn in 4 tranches in June. The first payment of EUR 308mn is due as early as June 5 and several Greek officials have stressed there is no money left in the government’s coffers. So it’s make it or break it time; we either get an all encompassing deal between Greece and the "institutions formerly known as the troika", or a default".
"Well not so fast. Greek officials have claimed several times over the past few months that the government was running on fumes, only to scrape the bottom of the barrel one last time. Also, the IMF typically allows a country to bundle multiple principle payments that are due over the course of a month – all Greece has to do is ask permission for such bundling and that would buy time till at least June 19, when the last payment is due, or possibly even until the end of the month. Moreover, the IMF only "notices" a default on payments a month later, suggesting even more time remains".
"Greek officials have an interest in preserving deadlines to use brinkmanship and try to pressure the "institutions" into a hurried deal. The creditors are not playing ball, however. The key issues to releasing the bail-out funds and agreeing on a follow-on program through 2018 remain: 1) new fiscal targets; 2) pension system overhaul; and 3) labour market reforms; several areas of which have been declared non-negotiable by the Greek government."
"Our main scenario is still for an eventual agreement that would involve a smaller primary surplus, rather limited labour market reforms and a pension system overhaul with attention to shielding some of the poorest people. In typical European style, it’s very possible this will be a multi-stage process, where initially an extension is provided for a few months in which the bail-out funds are released and during which the follow-on program still needs to be worked out. Should any doubts remain: Greece isn’t about to go away."
Key Quotes:
"No really. Greece has to make principal repayments of EUR 1.6bn in 4 tranches in June. The first payment of EUR 308mn is due as early as June 5 and several Greek officials have stressed there is no money left in the government’s coffers. So it’s make it or break it time; we either get an all encompassing deal between Greece and the "institutions formerly known as the troika", or a default".
"Well not so fast. Greek officials have claimed several times over the past few months that the government was running on fumes, only to scrape the bottom of the barrel one last time. Also, the IMF typically allows a country to bundle multiple principle payments that are due over the course of a month – all Greece has to do is ask permission for such bundling and that would buy time till at least June 19, when the last payment is due, or possibly even until the end of the month. Moreover, the IMF only "notices" a default on payments a month later, suggesting even more time remains".
"Greek officials have an interest in preserving deadlines to use brinkmanship and try to pressure the "institutions" into a hurried deal. The creditors are not playing ball, however. The key issues to releasing the bail-out funds and agreeing on a follow-on program through 2018 remain: 1) new fiscal targets; 2) pension system overhaul; and 3) labour market reforms; several areas of which have been declared non-negotiable by the Greek government."
"Our main scenario is still for an eventual agreement that would involve a smaller primary surplus, rather limited labour market reforms and a pension system overhaul with attention to shielding some of the poorest people. In typical European style, it’s very possible this will be a multi-stage process, where initially an extension is provided for a few months in which the bail-out funds are released and during which the follow-on program still needs to be worked out. Should any doubts remain: Greece isn’t about to go away."