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28 May 2015
Neutral outlook on EEMEA FX – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at BAML have remarked the neutral stance on the EEMEA FX space.
Key Quotes
“We are now neutral on EEMEA FX valuations overall after having been bearish for the past several years”.
“Our FX Compass model suggests the currencies are the cheapest they have been since”.
“Versus the USD, the model puts fair value for RUB (59.0) and ZAR (12.2) roughly in line with the one year forwards, while TRY is slightly undervalued (2.53), and CEE substantially so”.
“For year-end, we forecast slightly stronger currencies against the USD as we think the currently implied hiking cycle is priced in, but investors are still long USD: we have USD/TRY at 2.50 and USD/ZAR at 11.50”.
Key Quotes
“We are now neutral on EEMEA FX valuations overall after having been bearish for the past several years”.
“Our FX Compass model suggests the currencies are the cheapest they have been since”.
“Versus the USD, the model puts fair value for RUB (59.0) and ZAR (12.2) roughly in line with the one year forwards, while TRY is slightly undervalued (2.53), and CEE substantially so”.
“For year-end, we forecast slightly stronger currencies against the USD as we think the currently implied hiking cycle is priced in, but investors are still long USD: we have USD/TRY at 2.50 and USD/ZAR at 11.50”.