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21 May 2015
Commodity currencies to resume depreciation - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Commodity currencies are likely to resume their depreciation, notes Charles St-Arnaud, Global FX Strategist at Nomura.
Key Quotes
"In Canada, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bp but signalled that further rate cuts were unlikely, while oil prices have recovered somewhat. As a result, the forecast for USD/CAD has been revised slightly lower, but the expected increase remains intact, with the cross ending the year at 1.26."
"In Australia, the RBA has cut rates twice in line with expectations. However, with the RBA not showing an imminent possibility of a rate cut in the latest statement and higher yields on AUD bonds could provide some support in the short term. However, we think continued economic underperformance will require further easing in late 2015 and the currency is overvalued. As such, we believe that AUD/USD should depreciate slightly more than previously expected ending the year at 0.74."
"In New Zealand, the RBNZ has gradually turned more cautious in recent weeks and increasing expectations of a cut have pushed USD/NZD lower. In addition, after recovering in Q1, dairy prices have resumed their decline and oil prices recovered pushing the terms of trade lower. As a result of monetary policy and commodity prices, NZD/USD is now expected to depreciate more than previously thought to 0.69."
Key Quotes
"In Canada, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bp but signalled that further rate cuts were unlikely, while oil prices have recovered somewhat. As a result, the forecast for USD/CAD has been revised slightly lower, but the expected increase remains intact, with the cross ending the year at 1.26."
"In Australia, the RBA has cut rates twice in line with expectations. However, with the RBA not showing an imminent possibility of a rate cut in the latest statement and higher yields on AUD bonds could provide some support in the short term. However, we think continued economic underperformance will require further easing in late 2015 and the currency is overvalued. As such, we believe that AUD/USD should depreciate slightly more than previously expected ending the year at 0.74."
"In New Zealand, the RBNZ has gradually turned more cautious in recent weeks and increasing expectations of a cut have pushed USD/NZD lower. In addition, after recovering in Q1, dairy prices have resumed their decline and oil prices recovered pushing the terms of trade lower. As a result of monetary policy and commodity prices, NZD/USD is now expected to depreciate more than previously thought to 0.69."