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10 Apr 2015
Canadian employment but print a soft number, USD/CAD could test 1.27 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities expect Canadian jobs print to print a soft figure and weaken CAD, expecting USD/CAD to test 1.27 levels.
Key Quotes
“A week devoid of Canadian data finally comes to a halt today with all eyes on the March employment report. We are looking for a weaker jobs print (-10k) relative to the market (flat) but as we noted in our preview yesterday, we think the risk around funds is asymmetric.”
“The market is conditioned to see weak Canadian data and with the way that USDCAD has traded over the past two sessions, we think the market will need to see a significant decline in headline payrolls to push USDCAD significantly higher from here.”
“We do think a print close to our forecast could test 1.27.”
“Conversely, should the data best expectations, we think it would open up greater downside potential for funds closer to the 1.25 handle. In the event that this happens we think a sharp correction in funds would eventually re-engage dip buyers.”
“The data today will not change expectations for the Bank of Canada meeting next week, so we may remain in a broader consolidation range for a while longer.“
Key Quotes
“A week devoid of Canadian data finally comes to a halt today with all eyes on the March employment report. We are looking for a weaker jobs print (-10k) relative to the market (flat) but as we noted in our preview yesterday, we think the risk around funds is asymmetric.”
“The market is conditioned to see weak Canadian data and with the way that USDCAD has traded over the past two sessions, we think the market will need to see a significant decline in headline payrolls to push USDCAD significantly higher from here.”
“We do think a print close to our forecast could test 1.27.”
“Conversely, should the data best expectations, we think it would open up greater downside potential for funds closer to the 1.25 handle. In the event that this happens we think a sharp correction in funds would eventually re-engage dip buyers.”
“The data today will not change expectations for the Bank of Canada meeting next week, so we may remain in a broader consolidation range for a while longer.“