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18 Mar 2015
The big picture for USD to stay intact post FOMC – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, comments on the probable impact on USD post the FOMC meet today.
Key Quotes
“The speed of gains for the US dollar is also likely to be a topic raised at the press conference (we do not expect reference to the dollar in the statement) and we would not be surprised to hear Chair Yellen highlight the disinflationary/deflationary impetus the move will bring.”
“Export orders in the ISM manufacturing report also shows the potential for some slowing in exports due to dollar gains. So purely from the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate, the dollar may start to play some minor role in determining the timing of lift-off.”
“However, where the Fed is likely to remain positive is on the US labour market. The 5.5% unemployment rate puts us at the top of the long-run estimate of the FOMC (5.2%-5.5%) set in December and that means the domestic economy is on a strong footing.”
“The debate over the exact timing of the first rate increase is likely to continue beyond today but the message that rates will need to move higher this year is also likely to be clear.”
“Hence, the dollar is set to remain well underpinned. The story for the dollar is of course what’s happening in the US relative to elsewhere and the favourable spread dynamic for the dollar is unlikely to change after today.”
“We estimate that the DXY has advanced at its fastest rate in percentage terms over the last eight months since 1980-81 and that scale of speed is unsustainable – some correction or loss of momentum seems plausible but the big picture support for the US dollar is not going to change after today’s FOMC meeting. So any dollar reversal will be temporary and a test of parity in EUR/USD later this year is likely.”
Key Quotes
“The speed of gains for the US dollar is also likely to be a topic raised at the press conference (we do not expect reference to the dollar in the statement) and we would not be surprised to hear Chair Yellen highlight the disinflationary/deflationary impetus the move will bring.”
“Export orders in the ISM manufacturing report also shows the potential for some slowing in exports due to dollar gains. So purely from the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate, the dollar may start to play some minor role in determining the timing of lift-off.”
“However, where the Fed is likely to remain positive is on the US labour market. The 5.5% unemployment rate puts us at the top of the long-run estimate of the FOMC (5.2%-5.5%) set in December and that means the domestic economy is on a strong footing.”
“The debate over the exact timing of the first rate increase is likely to continue beyond today but the message that rates will need to move higher this year is also likely to be clear.”
“Hence, the dollar is set to remain well underpinned. The story for the dollar is of course what’s happening in the US relative to elsewhere and the favourable spread dynamic for the dollar is unlikely to change after today.”
“We estimate that the DXY has advanced at its fastest rate in percentage terms over the last eight months since 1980-81 and that scale of speed is unsustainable – some correction or loss of momentum seems plausible but the big picture support for the US dollar is not going to change after today’s FOMC meeting. So any dollar reversal will be temporary and a test of parity in EUR/USD later this year is likely.”