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12 Mar 2015
Australian jobs: Risks skewed modestly towards upbeat numbers - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - According to ANZ Economics Team, today's risks for Australian jobs are skewed modestly towards a better labour market report than the market expects.
Key Quotes
"Our stronger employment forecast partly reflects the somewhat stronger signal being sent by ANZ job ads and broader measures of job vacancies (see charts below), although we acknowledge that these measures do not capture retrenchments. We also expect a degree of statistical payback, and that weakness in NSW in recent months will unwind given it is at odds with all other economic indicators for the state."
"If our forecast for the unemployment rate to edge down to 6.3% is realised, this should not be viewed as a change in trend, and we continue to expect the unemployment rate to deteriorate from here in line with subdued economic growth outcomes."
"The reaction in short-end rates markets is likely to be relatively symmetric given the market is assigning around a 50% chance of a rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting, although we would argue the hurdle for a large reaction is likely to be high. Regardless of the weaker domestic data flow over the past month, market pricing stuck around the 50% mark heading into the March policy meeting. While the cash rate was left unchanged, pricing for the next meeting has continued to hover around this level since. A significant step down in the unemployment rate of 6.2% (with a positive employment number) or, conversely, a print of 6.5% for the unemployment rate or higher, will likely be required for pricing to budge from this level."
"For the AUD, a modestly better print will see some bounce, but we expect resistance at the USD0.7675 level unless the unemployment rate drops to 6.2% or below. A weaker outcome with the unemployment rate rising to 6.5% or above could see the recent sell-off extended to USD0.75."
Key Quotes
"Our stronger employment forecast partly reflects the somewhat stronger signal being sent by ANZ job ads and broader measures of job vacancies (see charts below), although we acknowledge that these measures do not capture retrenchments. We also expect a degree of statistical payback, and that weakness in NSW in recent months will unwind given it is at odds with all other economic indicators for the state."
"If our forecast for the unemployment rate to edge down to 6.3% is realised, this should not be viewed as a change in trend, and we continue to expect the unemployment rate to deteriorate from here in line with subdued economic growth outcomes."
"The reaction in short-end rates markets is likely to be relatively symmetric given the market is assigning around a 50% chance of a rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting, although we would argue the hurdle for a large reaction is likely to be high. Regardless of the weaker domestic data flow over the past month, market pricing stuck around the 50% mark heading into the March policy meeting. While the cash rate was left unchanged, pricing for the next meeting has continued to hover around this level since. A significant step down in the unemployment rate of 6.2% (with a positive employment number) or, conversely, a print of 6.5% for the unemployment rate or higher, will likely be required for pricing to budge from this level."
"For the AUD, a modestly better print will see some bounce, but we expect resistance at the USD0.7675 level unless the unemployment rate drops to 6.2% or below. A weaker outcome with the unemployment rate rising to 6.5% or above could see the recent sell-off extended to USD0.75."