US December retail register a steepest fall since January 2014 – Nomura

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura shares US December Retail Sales data, noting that it declined by 0.9% in December, way below consensus forecast at -0.1%, and registering its steepest fall since January 2014, lowering the Q1 outlook for consumer spending.

Key Quotes

“The Census Bureau today reported that US retail sales declined by 0.9% in December, well below expectations (Nomura: -0.2%, Consensus: -0.1%), and registered its steepest monthly fall since January 2014 when inclement weather held back sales.”

“Headline retail sales were also revised lower in November and October by 0.3pp and 0.2pp to increases of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Retail sales excluding autos were weaker, declining by 1.0% in December and were revised by 0.4pp and 0.2pp to monthly gains of only 0.1% and 0.2% in November and October, respectively.”

“Core retail sales (excludes auto, gasoline station, building material, and food services and drinking places sales) fell by 0.4% in December, weaker than expectations (Nomura: +0.5%, Consensus: +0.4%) and were revised lower by 0.1pp to an increase of 0.4% in October.

“Weaker-than-expected core retail sales led us to revise down our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to 3.1% from 3.3%, previously.”

“Moreover, the slow growth in December’s core retail sales in Q4 has lowered the jumping-off point for consumer spending in Q1 which is negative for Q1’s q-o-q growth rate.”