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5 Jun 2013
Flash: Chinese HF data suggests economy stays weak - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economists note that in China, high frequency data suggests that the economy remained weak in May.
They see that daily electricity production in May dropped marginally by 0.1% m-o-m. On a year-on year basis, they estimate electricity production grew by 6.4% in May, down from 7.4% in April. Based on this estimate, they expect industrial production growth to drop to 9.0% y-o-y (Consensus 9.4%; Previous: 9.3%). Further, 21st Century Economic News reported that new loans from the four largest banks totaled RMB208bn in May, lower than the RMB300bn speculated in an earlier Economic Information Daily report. They feel that this is consistent with our view that domestic demand remained weak. They write, “We forecast total new loans at RMB750bn (Consensus 850bn; Previous: 793bn), and expect total social financing to drop to RMB1550bn (Consensus: 1625bn; Previous: 1750bn).”
They see that daily electricity production in May dropped marginally by 0.1% m-o-m. On a year-on year basis, they estimate electricity production grew by 6.4% in May, down from 7.4% in April. Based on this estimate, they expect industrial production growth to drop to 9.0% y-o-y (Consensus 9.4%; Previous: 9.3%). Further, 21st Century Economic News reported that new loans from the four largest banks totaled RMB208bn in May, lower than the RMB300bn speculated in an earlier Economic Information Daily report. They feel that this is consistent with our view that domestic demand remained weak. They write, “We forecast total new loans at RMB750bn (Consensus 850bn; Previous: 793bn), and expect total social financing to drop to RMB1550bn (Consensus: 1625bn; Previous: 1750bn).”