USD/CHF hovers near 0.8050, 14-year lows due to rising US uncertainty, safe-haven demand
- USD/CHF faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) struggles against a backdrop of escalating economic and political uncertainty in the United States.
- The political and economic uncertainty in the US has amplified the safe-haven demand for the CHF.
- President Trump openly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reigniting concerns about the central bank’s autonomy.
USD/CHF continues to slide for the third consecutive session, trading near 0.8070 during Tuesday's Asian session. The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) struggles against a backdrop of escalating economic and political uncertainty in the United States.
This uncertainty has amplified the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) earlier gains, initially fueled by President Donald Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariff proposals. These developments have driven investors toward safer assets, such as foreign currencies and gold, away from USD-denominated securities. The CHF’s recent strength against the Euro has also sparked speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may intervene in the currency markets or even revisit negative interest rate policies.
Investor sentiment remains fragile due to the ongoing deadlock in global trade negotiations, particularly with China pushing back against Trump’s tariff measures. Further concerns were triggered by Trump’s proposed investigation into critical mineral imports, raising fears of slower economic growth and rising inflation. These factors have bolstered safe-haven demand for the CHF, putting additional downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.
Sentiment was further dampened after Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, renewing concerns over the Fed’s independence. Adding to the uncertainty, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett revealed that Trump is exploring whether he has the authority to remove Powell. In a Truth Social post, Trump also warned that the US economy could face a slowdown unless the Fed acts swiftly to cut interest rates.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.