USD/CAD falls to near 1.3800, downside seems limited due to weaker Oil prices
- USD/CAD declines as the US Dollar weakens amid growing concerns over the potential economic fallout from US-imposed tariffs.
- The Greenback remains under pressure, with the 2-year US Treasury yield falling over 1% to 3.75%.
- The commodity-linked CAD may face headwinds due to falling crude Oil prices.
USD/CAD depreciates after registering gains in the previous session, trading around a six-month low at 1.3802 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair faces headwinds due to the weaker US Dollar (USD), remaining under pressure due to mounting concerns over the US economic fallout from US tariffs.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, dropped over 0.50%, trading around 98.50, its lowest level since April 2022, at the time of writing. The Greenback faces headwinds as the 2-year yield on US Treasury bonds has depreciated by more than 1%, standing at 3.75%.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell warned that a sluggish economy paired with persistent inflation could challenge the Fed’s objectives and raise the risk of stagflation. In political developments, reports on Thursday suggested President Trump’s frustration with Fed Chair Powell, even considering his removal. Although markets showed little immediate reaction, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed that Trump is exploring the possibility.
However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair may be limited, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could come under pressure from declining crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is down over 1%, trading around $62.80 per barrel at the time of writing.
Crude Oil prices weakened following progress in nuclear negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, easing concerns that geopolitical tensions would disrupt supply from the major Middle Eastern producer. According to Iran's foreign minister, both countries agreed on Saturday to start drafting a framework for a potential nuclear deal, with a US official describing the talks as showing “very good progress,” as reported by Reuters.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.