USD/CHF softens below 0.8550 as traders brace for US CPI release
- USD/CHF edges lower to 0.8530 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Renewed US-China trade tensions boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc.
- Investors await the US March CPI inflation report, which is due later on Thursday.
The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amid the escalating trade tension between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies.
President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners to 10% to allow trade negotiations with those countries. However, US-China trade relations have reached a crisis level, with Trump raising tariffs to 125% on Chinese imports on Thursday, up from the 104% implemented just a day earlier.
Escalating trade war between the world’s top two economies could slow their growth down, or even push them into recession. This, in turn, might harm other countries' economies in the form of slower global growth. The economic uncertainty and fears of potential global recession boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the CHF.
The US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be closely monitored later on Thursday. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in March, while the core CPI is estimated to show a rise of 3.0% during the same reported period. If the report shows a hotter than expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback in the near term.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.