Gold jumps to $3,050 as US tariffs go into effect
- Gold price edges higher and jumps over 2% on Wednesday.
- Risk-off mood and rising bets of Fed rate cuts amid recession fears also benefit Gold.
- Gold bounces from the sub-$3,000 region to $3,050 at the time of writing.
Gold price (XAU/USD) bounces higher and recovers to $3,050 at the time of writing on Wednesday as United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs come into effect. At one point this week, markets were hoping for a last-minute solution as several news outlets informed on Monday that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. However, the White House stated that any suggestion that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs was “fake news.”
“Gold’s rebound reflects growing investor anxiety over tariff threats and the potential reshaping of global trade norms,” says Christopher Wong, a foreign currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Bullion remains a good hedge against a more disorderly global economy, Wong said, Bloomberg reports. The market also speculates that heightened volatility may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to speed up interest rate cuts to prevent a recession. Lower rates typically benefit Gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
Daily digest market movers: China tops Gold buying
- Shares of Muthoot Finance, an Indian financial corporation and the largest Gold loan non-bank financial company in the country, declined as much as 6.3% after the Indian central bank said it would undertake a comprehensive review of gold loan regulations, which could potentially increase competition in the sector.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May’s meeting surging to 53.5%, compared with only 10.6% a week ago. For June, the chances of lower borrowing costs are 100%, with 55.2% anticipating a 50 basis point (bp) rate cut.
- Chinese investors funneled a record amount of cash into Gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) last week, drawn by the asset's safety as combative trade war rhetoric from the world’s biggest economies shakes global markets. Inflows to four major onshore Gold ETFs, including Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, hit a record of 7.6 billion yuan ($1 billion) last week, according to Bloomberg’s calculations, with strong inflows continuing this week, Bloomberg reports.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Unable to avoid
With the US tariffs taking effect this Wednesday, the markets' reaction is one still with some surprise. It seems that markets were positioned for some last-minute solution or delay, which would soften the actual blow and impact of the tariffs. Nonetheless, duties are taking effect immediately, and that is enough for last-minute investors to head back into Gold.
Looking up, resistances are a bit spread out, with the first cap of the R1 resistance at $3,041 being tested when writing, followed by $3,057, a pivotal level since March 20. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,089 precedes the current all-time high of $3,167.
On the downside, the pivotal level of the March 14 high at $3,004 roughly coincides with the $3,000 round number. If this area does not hold as support, bears can target the S1 support at $2,964 and the $2,955 level, where clearly many buyers were interested in scooping up Gold on Monday. Further down, the S2 support at $2,945 is the last line of defense before the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,935.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.