US Dollar flat despite market turmoil ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
- Equities drop, Bond prices surge and Gold spikes ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
- US President Trump confirmed that all countries will be targeted.
- The US Dollar Index trades stable around 104.10, though no safe-haven flows in the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, lacks direction and trades almost flat on Monday. The DXY is completely left in the dark while Equities are selling off, Bond prices are spiking higher, and Gold has hit a fresh all-time high above $3,100 earlier in the day. The move comes after United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterated on Sunday at Airforce One that all countries will fall under reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday's 'Liberation Day', Bloomberg reports.
One thing that became clear last week is that the US Dollar (USD) is moving depending on US economic data, and fears of stagflation or recession are weakening the Greenback. Thus, Monday's focus will shift to March’s Chicago Purchase Manager’s Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Contractions and slow downs in those economic data points could trigger another leg lower in the DXY.
Daily digest market movers: Data getting important for confirmation
- At 13:45 GMT, the Chicago Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI) will be released. Expectations are for 45.4, just one tick lower from the previous 45.5.
- At 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Manufacturing Business Index for March. No forecast is available, with the previous reading at -8.3.
- Equities are diving lower with losses between 1.0% to 2.0% crossing from Asia over Europe and into US futures.
- According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 82.1%. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 81.2%.
- The US 10-year yield trades around 4.20%, a substantial drop lower and the reason why the Fedwatch Tool sees elevated chances for a rate cut in June.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: One thing is clear
The US Dollar Index (DXY) provided an answer last week and this Monday to one question that was on traders’ minds. Tariffs clearly do not impact the US Dollar. Instead, the US economic data looks to be impacting the Greenback, as seen on Friday with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and elevated inflation expectations reading, which pushed the US Dollar lower. The recession or stagflation fear no longer supports a stronger US Dollar, and more evidence of stagflation could push the DXY lower from here.
A return to the 105.00 round level could still occur in the coming days, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance at 104.94. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum.
On the downside, the 104.00 round level is the first nearby support, although it looks bleak after being tested on Friday and again this Monday. If that level does not hold, the DXY risks falling back into that March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower end at 103.00 gives way, watch out for 101.90 on the downside.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.