确认您不是来自美国或菲律宾

在此声明,本人明确声明并确认:
  • 我不是美国公民或居民
  • 我不是菲律宾居民
  • 本人没有直接或间接拥有美国居民10%以上的股份/投票权/权益,和/或没有通过其他方式控制美国公民或居民。
  • 本人没有直接或间接的美国公民或居民10%以上的股份/投票权/权益的所有权,和/或受美国公民或居民其他任何方式行使的控制。
  • 根据FATCA 1504(a)对附属关系的定义,本人与美国公民或居民没有任何附属关系。
  • 我知道做出虚假声明所需付的责任。
就本声明而言,所有美国附属国家和地区均等同于美国的主要领土。本人承诺保护Octa Markets Incorporated及其董事和高级职员免受因违反本声明而产生或与之相关的任何索赔。
我们致力于保护您的隐私和您个人信息的安全。我们只收集电子邮件,以提供有关我们产品和服务的特别优惠和重要信息。通过提交您的电子邮件地址,您同意接收我们的此类信件。如果您想取消订阅或有任何问题或疑虑,请联系我们的客户支持。
Octa trading broker
开通交易账户
Back

Federal Reserve set to keep interest rate unchanged amid US recession fears and Trump tariff concerns

  • The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting.
  • The revised Summary of Economic Projections could offer key clues about the policy outlook.
  • The US Dollar could recover if the Fed downplays growth concerns.  

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot, following the March policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to leave policy settings unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, after cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.5% range in December.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors virtually see no chance of a rate cut in March while pricing in about a 30% probability of a 25 bps reduction in May. Hence, revised forecasts and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could drive the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation rather than the interest rate decision itself. 

In December, the dot plot showed that policymakers were projecting a total of 50 bps reduction in the policy rate in 2025, while forecasting an annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.1% and seeing an annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation of 2.5% at year-end. 

“The FOMC is broadly expected to keep its police stance unchanged for a second consecutive meeting,” said TD Securities analysts previewing the Fed event. “Based on the still steady signal provided by the labor market amid still sticky inflation, we expect Chair Powell to double-down on his message of patience regarding policy decisions. We also do not anticipate significant changes to the Fed's SEP or to QT plans for now,” they added.

Economic Indicator

FOMC Economic Projections

At four of its eight scheduled annual meetings, the Federal Reserve (Fed) releases a report detailing its projections for inflation, the unemployment rate and economic growth over the next two years and, more importantly, a breakdown of each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member's individual interest rate forecasts.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Mar 19, 2025 18:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: -

Previous: -

Source: Federal Reserve

When will the Fed announce its interest rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD?

The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy statement with the revised SEP on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. This will be followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference starting at 18:30 GMT. 

Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US, combined with US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, revived fears over the US economy tipping into recession. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model, the US economy is projected to contract at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter.   

In case the dot plot shows a rate cut projection of 75 bps in 2025, this could be seen as a dovish shift in the rate outlook and trigger another leg of the USD selloff. On the flip side, a hawkish revision in the SEP, with officials forecasting a single 25 bps cut, could boost the currency.

If the interest rate projection remains unchanged, investors will scrutinize inflation and growth forecasts. A downward revision to growth expectations could hurt the USD, while an upward revision to inflation forecasts, without a noticeable change in the GDP estimates, could support the USD in the near term.

Powell’s comments could also impact the USD’s performance. If he downplays concerns over an economic downturn and puts more emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, citing Trump’s administration’s tariffs, the USD is likely to outperform its rivals in the near term. On the contrary, if Powell acknowledges signs of a worsening growth outlook, the USD is likely to have a difficult time finding demand.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD:

“EUR/USD remains technically bullish in the near term as it stays in the upper half of the two-month-old ascending regression channel. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds near 70, reaffirming the bullish stance.”

“On the upside, 1.1000 (upper limit of the ascending channel, round level) aligns as a key resistance level before 1.1100 (static level, round level) and 1.1180 (static level from October 2024). Looking south, the first support level could be spotted at 1.0770 (mid-point of the ascending channel) before 1.0720, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A daily close below the latter support could attract technical sellers and open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0645 (20-day SMA).”

Dot Plot FAQs

The “Dot Plot” is the popular name of the interest-rate projections by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which implements monetary policy. These are published in the Summary of Economic Projections, a report in which FOMC members also release their individual projections on economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation for the current year and the next few ones. The document consists of a chart plotting interest-rate projections, with each FOMC member’s forecast represented by a dot. The Fed also adds a table summarizing the range of forecasts and the median for each indicator. This makes it easier for market participants to see how policymakers expect the US economy to perform in the near, medium and long term.

The US Federal Reserve publishes the “Dot Plot” once every other meeting, or in four of the eight yearly scheduled meetings. The Summary of Economic Projections report is published along with the monetary policy decision.

The “Dot Plot” gives a comprehensive insight into the expectations from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. As projections reflect each official’s projection for interest rates at the end of each year, it is considered a key forward-looking indicator. By looking at the “Dot Plot” and comparing the data to current interest-rate levels, market participants can see where policymakers expect rates to head to and the overall direction of monetary policy. As projections are released quarterly, the “Dot Plot” is widely used as a guide to figure out the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot.

The most market-moving data in the “Dot Plot” is the projection of the federal funds rate. Any change compared with previous projections is likely to influence the US Dollar (USD) valuation. Generally, if the “Dot Plot” shows that policymakers expect higher interest rates in the near term, this tends to be bullish for USD. Likewise, if projections point to lower rates ahead, the USD is likely to weaken.


 

Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
了解更多 Previous

Eurozone Labor Cost down to 3.7% in 4Q from previous 4.6%

Eurozone Labor Cost down to 3.7% in 4Q from previous 4.6%
了解更多 Next