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10 Feb 2025
Forex Today: Gold rally continues, USD holds ground as markets assess Trump tariff talks
Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 10:
The US Dollar stays resilient against its major rivals on Monday as markets assess the latest headlines surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff policy. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases. Later in the day, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver the Annual Report at the European Parliament.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | -0.12% | 0.38% | 0.31% | -0.08% | -0.01% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.11% | 0.45% | 0.36% | -0.14% | 0.01% | 0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.40% | 0.44% | -0.03% | 0.12% | 0.30% | |
| JPY | -0.38% | -0.45% | -0.40% | -0.11% | -0.39% | -0.39% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.44% | 0.11% | -0.36% | -0.34% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.39% | 0.36% | 0.15% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.12% | 0.39% | 0.34% | -0.15% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.30% | 0.21% | 0.18% | -0.33% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Following the mixed labor market data, the USD Index closed modestly higher on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 143,000 in January, missing the market expectation for an increase of 170,000. On a positive note, November's increase of 256,000 got revised higher to 307,000 and the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1% from 4% in December.
Meanwhile, President Trump said on Friday that he will announce "reciprocal tariffs" on many countries this Tuesday or Wednesday. Over the weekend, Trump also noted that he plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US. The USD Index opened with a small bullish gap and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day, slightly above 108.20. Wall Street's main indexes suffered large losses on Friday. Early Monday, US stock index futures rise between 0.1% and 0.4%. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Despite losing more than 0.5% on Friday, EUR/USD ended the previous week in positive territory. The pair holds steady above 1.0300 in the early European morning.
AUD/USD started the week under bearish pressure on Trump’s announcement of imposing new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US and declined below 0.6250. In response, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said Monday that Australian steel and aluminum is creating "thousands of good-paying American jobs" adding that they are key for our their shared defense interests. The pair regains its traction to begin the European session and trades flat on the day above 0.6270.
GBP/USD registered losses on Thursday and Friday but managed to post weekly gains. The pair holds its ground early Monday and fluctuates above 1.2400.
USD/JPY declined sharply and lost more than 2% in the previous week. The pair stages a rebound toward 152.00 early Monday. During a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Friday, Trump said that he intends to "work out" the US' trade deficit with Japan, which currently sits around $65 billion per year.
Gold preserves its bullish momentum to begin the new week, after having gained more than 2% last week. XAU/USD was last seen trading at a new record-high near $2,890.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.