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5 Feb 2025
US Dollar struggles as mixed data weighs on sentiment
- DXY remains under pressure, testing 107.35 support despite upbeat ADP and S&P Global PMI data.
- ISM Services PMI disappoints, signaling weaker than expected service sector growth and moderating price pressures.
- US 10-year yield rebounds, hovering around 4.40% after touching a yearly low.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of currencies, struggled to recover losses on Wednesday and declined against most major peers. Despite stronger than expected ADP Employment and S&P Global PMI data, the ISM Services PMI fell short of forecasts, casting doubt on the strength of the US economy.
The Fed Sentiment Index, which previously sat at 130.00, has cooled off, signaling a less hawkish tone from policymakers. As a result, traders are reassessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate path, contributing to the DXY’s weak price action around 107.35 support.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar struggles as mixed data weighs on sentiment
- ADP Employment Report showed that private sector employment jumped by 183,000 in January, exceeding the 150,000 forecast. Consumer-facing industries drove job creation, while manufacturing saw weaker gains.
- S&P Global PMI data revealed that the final readings for January saw minor upward revisions with the Services PMI at 52.9 (vs. 52.8 expected) and the Composite PMI at 52.7 (vs. 52.4 prior).
- ISM Services PMI: Disappointed at 52.8, missing the expected 54.3, while the Prices Paid index eased to 60.4 from 64.4, indicating softer inflationary pressures.
- All eyes are now on Friday Nonfarm Payrolls for January, which is seen printing a weak result that might add more weakness to the USD.
DXY technical outlook: Bears eye 107.00 support
The DXY's momentum indicators reflect a shift toward bearish traction. The Fed Sentiment Index cooling off from 130.00 aligns with weaker ISM data, weighing on the USD.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, while the index has fallen beneath the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 108.50. If downside pressure persists, the next key level to watch is the psychological support at 107.00.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element in assessing the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels because low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given their significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.