Gold price continues scaling higher; fresh record high and counting
- Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid renewed US-China trade war fears.
- Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD and further lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
- A slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart warrants some caution for bullish traders.
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday and advances to a fresh all-time peak, around the $2,854 region in the last hour. Investors remain concerned about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which continues to underpin demand for the safe-haven bullion. Furthermore, the JOLTS data released on Tuesday pointed to slowing momentum in the US labor market and could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its easing cycle despite sticky inflation. This turns out to be another factor that contributes to driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the prospects for further policy easing by the Fed keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near the weekly low touched on Tuesday, which is seen lending additional support to the Gold prices. That said, Trump's decision to delay tariffs against Canada and Mexico remains supportive of the risk-on mood and could cap gains for the commodity amid overbought conditions on the daily chart. This makes it prudent to wait for a near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before placing fresh bullish bets around the XAU/USD. Traders now look to the US ADP report on private-sector employment and the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus.
Gold price uptrend remains uninterrupted as investors continue to seek refuge in safe-haven assets
- China retaliated to US President Donald Trump's new duties and imposed targeted tariffs on US imports, fueling trade war fears between the world's top two economies and lifting the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high on Wednesday.
- The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 7.6 million, down from 8.09 million previous.
- The data pointed to a slowdown in the job market, which could allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. This keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive near the weekly low and turns out to be another factor that benefits the XAU/USD pair.
- Trump offered concessions to Canada and Mexico by delaying the 25% trade tariffs for 30 days, fueling hopes that a global trade war could be averted, though it does little to dent the bullish sentiment around the safe-haven precious metal.
- Wednesday's US economic docket features the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI. The data should influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around the commodity.
- The focus, however, will remain on the closely-watched US monthly employment detail – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, tariff headlines should infuse volatility in the markets.
Gold price needs to consolidate recent strong gains before extending a well-established uptrend
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on hourly and daily charts is flashing slightly overbought conditions, warranting some caution for bullish traders. That said, the recent breakout momentum beyond the $2,800 mark suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend from the December 2024 swing low.
In the meantime, any corrective slide now seems to find some support near the $2,830 area ahead of the $2,800 mark. A further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited near the $2,773-2,772 horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.