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23 Jan 2025
GBP/USD struggles near 1.2300 due to differing policy stances between central banks
- GBP/USD faces challenges as the US Dollar strengthens, with expectations that the Fed will maintain its rate in January.
- The Pound Sterling struggles as traders anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the BoE in February.
- Traders expect to closely watch the release of Friday's preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index for both countries for January.
GBP/USD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.2320 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) received support as President Donald Trump issued a memorandum instructing federal agencies to investigate and address ongoing trade deficits.
The Greenback could further appreciate as traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting. Moreover, Trump’s policies could drive inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Fed to just one more rate cut.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to face pressure following weaker-than-expected UK inflation and retail sales data for December, sluggish labor demand in the three months leading up to November, and modest GDP growth. As a result, traders are anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in February. It is nearly certain that the BoE will reduce rates to 4.5% during its upcoming policy meeting.
Traders are expected to closely watch the release of Friday's preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both the United Kingdom and the United States for January. Additionally, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be in focus. These indicators are likely to offer important insights into short-term economic trends.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.