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18 Dec 2024
NZD/USD falls below 0.5750 due to increased risk aversion, awaits FOMC monetary policy
- NZD/USD continues to lose ground amid market caution ahead of the Fed interest rate decision.
- CME FedWatch tool suggests almost fully pricing in a quarter basis point cut on Wednesday.
- The New Zealand Dollar faces challenges amid renewed concerns about China's economy.
NZD/USD extends losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.5740 during early European hours on Wednesday. This downside of the pair could be attributed to the increased risk aversion ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) due later in the North American session.
However, the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued as traders are bracing for a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now almost fully pricing in a quarter basis point cut at the Fed's December meeting. Traders will also closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and Summary of Economic Projections (dot-plot) after the meeting.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure due to renewed concerns about China's economy, its key trading partner, following weak economic data. Chinese Retail Sales missed expectations in November, adding strain on policymakers after President Xi Jinping indicated a desire to boost household consumption last week.
Traders are likely to monitor the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data due on Thursday, expected to show that New Zealand's economy contracted by 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q3. Meanwhile, a survey from Westpac indicated that consumer confidence rose to the reading of 97.5 in the fourth quarter, from the previous quarter’s 90.8 reading, marking the highest level in three years, although it remains below long-term averages.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.