GBP/USD maintains position around 1.2750 amid market caution as key economic figures loom
- GBP/USD may face challenges as traders adopt caution ahead of US Consumer Price Index data due on Wednesday.
- CME FedWatch Tool suggests an 85.8% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points in December.
- The upcoming Friday’s data is expected to indicate a rebound in the UK economy during October.
GBP/USD remains stable for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.2750 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive pair could face challenges as the US Dollar (USD) continues to gain ground due to market caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlighted in its latest consumer survey summary that US consumers are navigating uncertain economic expectations. The survey indicated a sharp improvement in consumers' outlook on their financial situations and the federal government’s fiscal condition, alongside a significant shift in expectations regarding debt affordability and credit conditions.
US November NFP data from Friday showed a robust 227,000 gain, well above expectations, and stable Average Hourly Earnings growth at 0.4% MoM. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 85.8% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) hovers near four-week highs as investors await key economic data and upcoming central bank meetings. Data due next Friday is expected to show the UK economy rebounding in October, alongside signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. The Bank of England (BoE) is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged at its December 19 meeting.
On Monday, BoE Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking, Sir Dave Ramsden, emphasized the need for the central bank to remain “vigilant” amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the UK’s economic outlook.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.