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USD/CAD Price Analysis: Remains inside the woods in a thin trading-volume session

  • USD/CAD juggles near Friday’s low around 1.3650 as trading volume is low due to holiday in US markets.
  • Traders pare bets supporting Fed rate cuts in September.
  • The BoC is widely anticipated to start reducing interest rates from June.

The USD/CAD pair trades in a narrow range near Friday’s low around 1.3650 in Monday’s European session. The Loonie asset is on the backfoot as the US Dollar faces selling pressure in a thin trading volume session as the United States (US) markets are closed on account of Memorial Day.

The US Dollar could bounce back as investors worry that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not return to policy normalization before the last quarter of this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that probability for interest rates remaining steady at their current levels after the September meeting has increased to 51% from 38% recorded last week.

Also, Fed policymakers continue to maintain a hawkish guidance on interest rates as they believe that one-time decline in the inflation data as recorded for April is insufficient to get confidence that the progress in the disinflation process has resumed.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar could come under pressure as investors expect that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will start reducing interest rates from the June meeting. Canada’s weak Retail Sales and consistently declining price pressures have prompted expectations for BoC rate-cuts in June.

USD/CAD trades in a Descending Triangle chart formation on a daily timeframe, which exhibits a sharp volatility contraction. The downward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from April 16 high at 1.3846 while the horizontal support is marked from March 25 high near 1.3570.

The Loonie asset remains sticky to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3670, suggesting a sideways trend.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Fresh buying opportunity would emerge if the asset breaks above April 30 high at 1.3785. This would drive the asset towards April 17 high at 1.3838, followed by the round-level resistance of 1.3900.

In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below May 3 low around 1.3600 will expose the asset to the April 9 low around 1.3547 and the psychological support of 1.3500.

USD/CAD daily chart

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price 1.3656
Today Daily Change -0.0009
Today Daily Change % -0.07
Today daily open 1.3665
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.3676
Daily SMA50 1.3649
Daily SMA100 1.3566
Daily SMA200 1.3572
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.3739
Previous Daily Low 1.3648
Previous Weekly High 1.3744
Previous Weekly Low 1.3596
Previous Monthly High 1.3846
Previous Monthly Low 1.3478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3683
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3704
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3629
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3593
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3538
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.372
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3775
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3811

 

 

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