AUD/USD to trade at 0.65 by year-end – ANZ

Since mid-July, AUD/USD has declined by 6% from above 0.68 to 0.64, setting a year-to-date low of 0.6357 on 6 September. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze Aussie’s outlook.

Upside ahead

We think developments in China (and the RMB), along with the USD, are key drivers of the AUD in the near term. 

We also expect commodity prices to have a larger impact on the AUD with rising energy prices. If these elevated energy prices are sustained, this will likely be supportive for Australia’s terms of trade and may dampen some of the negative impact from a resilient USD and a weak RMB.

We expect the AUD to be at 0.65 by year-end.