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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Snaps two-day winning streak as bears approach 1.0800 key support

  • EUR/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, prints the first daily loss in three.
  • Euro pair’s decline below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement joins looming bear cross on MACD to tease sellers.
  • 21-SMA joins two-month-old horizontal support, ascending trend line from mid-March to highlight 1.0800 level as the key for bears.
  • Buyers have a bumpy road to tackle before crossing 1.0940.

EUR/USD drops to 1.0830 as it welcomes intraday sellers during the initial hour of Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the Euro pair prints the first daily loss in three.

The major currency pair’s latest weakness drags it back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its February-March downside, following a brief run-up, which in turn teases sellers. Adding strength to the downside bias is the looming bear cross on the MACD indicator.

It should be noted, however, that a convergence of the 21-SMA, horizontal line from late January and a two-week-old ascending trend line together highlight the 1.0800 as a tough nut to crack for the EUR/USD bears.

In a case where the Euro pair drops below 1.0800, the mid-month top around 1.0760 and the last Friday’s high near 1.0715 could lure the bears.

Alternatively, a clear upside break of the recent top surrounding 1.0850 becomes necessary for the EUR/USD buyers to return to the table.

However, a seven-week-long broad resistance area between 1.0930 and 1.0940 can challenge the Euro pair’s further advances, a break of which could quickly propel the pair toward the Year-To-Date (YTD) high marked in January around 1.1033.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected

 

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EUR/USD: Forecast for the end of 2023 lowered to 1.10 from 1.12 – ABN Amro

Economists at ABN Amro have adjusted their forecasts in EUR/USD following changes in the Fed view and ECB view. Year-end 2024 forecast kept at at 1.16
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